You could say it began with the mystery of the mandate letters. For many following the Trudeau government’s moves closely since prorogation, the signal that there might be some Cabinet level changes was starting to flash by late November, set off by one pressing question: what is delaying the release of the government’s mandate letters for Cabinet? The official line was that these continue to be extraordinary times and that Cabinet was focused on the urgent matters of the second wave of this pandemic. But as November passed and talk of the timing for the next election gained momentum, the conjecture regarding who might choose not to run again on Trudeau’s team started to seem more significant than simply water cooler conversation. Why define an ambitious mandate to any Minister if she or he is not going to be around to deliver on those promises? Aside from Minister-of-Everything Chrystia Freeland’s role at Finance, there may be no more important marching orders for economic recovery than the Innovation Minister’s on Trudeau’s team. Now, with the news that Navdeep Bains will not run again and is stepping down, new mandates at the Cabinet table really become the bullet points for a campaign platform. And the ink may not be dry on each before Trudeau’s stump speech is in first draft.

The loss of Navdeep Bains from Cabinet is indicative of how transformative the last year really has been internally in government. You could put it down to that collective sense of exhaustion that the months of crisis response have exacted on Cabinet. Yet among Liberal insiders, reading the field strategically, there will be references to some rumoured exploratory conversations around the provincial Liberal leadership prior to Ford’s election victory, suggesting that Bains’ decision to step down from his Cabinet role and not run again is a long game move. But what is indisputable about the Innovation Minister’s “retirement” is that it represents a major shift in dynamics in Trudeau’s inner circle. The Prime Minister is losing a key player from the team that he has kept close for more than fifteen years, as he charted his path to the leadership of the Liberal party and the Prime Minister’s office.

The Liberal leadership race of 2006 is like ancient history now, but for those on the convention floor in Montreal who saw an unelected Justin Trudeau working closely with Navdeep Bains to bring votes on the floor over to Gerard Kennedy, their bond was a seminal moment in Trudeau’s eventual rise to power. From Bains’ earliest days, when he rose to sudden prominence in the last months of the Martin government, the Brampton MP excelled at campaign organization and working the rooms where the alchemy of influence is transformed into solid political capital. Over the last five years, critics of Bains as Innovation Minister have carped about his reliance on talking points where details and greater substance were merited and expected, citing the rollout of the Innovation agenda and the Supercluster initiative as cases in point. Yet it’s in closer quarters where Bains’ political EQ – and his close reading on policy – really comes to light. And he eases into perfect pitch as a communicator when he’s at the doors in the crucial 905 ridings in Ontario. Like Trudeau’s Chief of Staff Katie Telford, he’s got a sharp eye for talent, bringing formidable organizational acumen to the table with the team around him. It is hard to imagine that the skill set Trudeau saw in Bains will now be ultimately realized in some C suite far from Ottawa or Queen’s Park. Nav will be back.

François-Philippe Champagne becomes Minister of Innovation, Science and Industry

Yet if there was any fundamental quality that Trudeau’s Cabinet had to draw upon over the course of this pandemic, it’s simply been energy – the ability to keep driving an agenda hard through the vagaries of crisis – so it should be no surprise to see François-Philippe Champagne take over for Bains. Since 2015, when he was first elected in the St. Maurice-Champlain riding of Quebec, “Frankie Bubbles” has proven himself to be a tireless, happy warrior for Trudeau’s agenda. First racking up his air miles at International Trade and then at Foreign Affairs, he is a natural fit for such a vital, all-encompassing remit. It’s going to be a thick set of Cabinet docs he’ll take home each night. There is a lot to be accomplished with some major pieces of legislation, such as C-11, the Privacy bill, and everybody from tech start-ups to the banks are eager to see the details emerging. These files align well with the scope of  Champagne’s ambitions. He is Shawinigan born and raised, so all comparisons to a former Liberal up-and-comer from that corner of Quebec would be duly noted and welcomed by the new Minister, as he’ll play a key role for the next campaign ground game.

Marc Garneau moves to Global Affairs

Apart from Bains’ decision, the surprise in today’s announcement is really with Garneau going to Foreign Affairs. Among the few Ministers rumoured to be truly planning for retirement, Garneau has always been mentioned. But political careers are often defined by timing, and his own leadership run against Trudeau inevitably cast Garneau as a stolid, senior statesman who could not bring the energy and momentum to a campaign that Trudeau could. Yet ever since he was recruited by the Martin team, the former astronaut has always been viewed as a natural for a prominent place at the Cabinet table, and though he’s been viewed as dependably effective, he was never quite in the limelight with Transport. His new job at Foreign Affairs, as the China file remains a formidable challenge, could be where his gravitas and diplomatic talents will finally be utilized to their full effect.

Omar Alghabra enters at Transport

As Omar Alghabra takes his place at Transport, leaving a second Parliamentary Secretary role (Consular Affairs) vacant in two weeks for Trudeau’s team, the legacy of those bonds established with Gerard Kennedy’s leadership run is once again invoked. You could consider it the ultimate echo effect of Bains’ decision; Alghabra, from his Mississauga base, formed an organizational alliance with Bains to make them fundamental to Trudeau’s leadership success in the crucial Ontario ridings that remain a Liberal beachhead. Alghabra was there at the beginning with Trudeau’s campaign team, and he has bided his time, slowly establishing his bona fides in his various Parliamentary Secretary roles over the years, to earn this major Cabinet position. The Transport portfolio presents its own Rubik’s Cube of policy considerations, given the state of the airlines sector and how pivotal transport infrastructure will be to this government’s aspirations of building back better, but there will be no more important part of the country to communicate the ‘vision thing’ for Trudeau than the suburbs of Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal, where Alghabra’s campaign skills will be put to work.

Carr Returns to Cabinet

And to lay the foundations for a comprehensive national strategy for the Liberals, many among them will view Jim Carr’s return to Cabinet as special representative for the Prairie Provinces as a welcome sign. The parallels with Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Dominic Leblanc are readily apparent; he’s overcome significant health challenges to re-emerge as fighting fit for a campaign, and his talents are put to great use in intergovernmental relations. While at Natural Resources, Carr demonstrated that he could come to the table with First Nations leaders and be a consensus builder. As the dialogue with western first ministers is likely to become only more fractious, he’s sure to draw upon those well earned strengths in brinksmanship in the coming months.

All of these changes will be consequential over the next twelve to sixteen weeks. The loss of a long time brother in arms for Trudeau with Bains’ exit means his team is going to take no chances with its front line, given the volatile political environment we’re in with the rollout of vaccinations and a bumpy road ahead for an economy stuttering through lockdowns. Shore up your strengths and be battle ready; that’s the directive Trudeau’s inner circle has just spoken to his Cabinet – and no doubt to the leaders of the opposition’s party as well – with today’s announcement.