After winning in a landslide as a Conservative candidate in each election since 2006, the founder of the People’s Party, leader Maxime Bernier finds himself in trouble in the federal riding of Beauce, where a tight four-way race between the Conservatives, People’s Party, Liberals, and Bloc Québécois threatens the People’s Party’s best opportunity at successfully electing a Member of Parliament.

According to data run by H+K’s partner Advanced Symbolics Inc.’s (ASI) – Canada’s only Artificial Intelligence (AI) pollster – finds that as of October 15th Bernier (24%) trails Conservative candidate Richard Lehoux (27%) by three points, while Liberal candidate Adam Veilleux (19%) and Bloc Québécois candidate Guillaume Rodrigue (18%) remain in the contest.

Although Bernier remains well ahead of his rivals in terms of social media engagement and awareness in the riding, his name recognition and engagement is not translating into a run-away race as he saw in each of his previous elections. In a riding which significantly over-indexes with engagement on energy, pipelines, and taxes Conservative Richard Lehoux, a former Mayor of Saint-Elzéar and former president of the Quebec Federation of Municipalities, is well-positioned to be the victor due to his ties to the local communities, and the Conservative value proposition of creating a national energy corridor and introducing tax credits aimed at making life more affordable.

Methodology. Historical data is collected by ASI from the Canadian Census. Predictive data is from “Polly” an AI that predicts voter intentions based on publicly available social media data. Social media data is gathered from ASI’s online representative sample of over 270,000 Canadians selected using ASI’s patented CIC algorithm.