The heavily Sikh riding of Brampton East represents the heart of growing Toronto-area multicultural suburbs. This part of the GTA was for years a Liberal stronghold except in 2011 when the riding turned orange but was surrounded by a sea of blue under Stephen Harper’s majority government. The 2015 election saw the riding return to the hands of the Liberals, helping to pave the way for a Liberal majority government under Justin Trudeau.

According to data run on September 30th by H+K’s partner Advanced Symbolics Inc.’s (ASI) – Canada’s only Artificial Intelligence (AI) pollster – Manny Sidhu of the Liberals is projected to hold the riding for the Liberals with 43% of the vote, comfortably ahead of Conservative rival Ramona Singh who is polling at 26%.  The NDP candidate Saranjit Singh, who is NDP leader Jagmeet Singh’s brother, is a distant third with a projected vote of 19%.

Manny Sidhu is not the Liberal incumbent. He ran for the party’s candidacy after MP Raj Grewal was kicked out of the Liberal caucus in late 2018 for admitting to having a serious gambling addiction. Even though Gurratan Singh is more known in the riding on social media, at least in part thanks to his brother Jagmeet, it may not be enough to surpass the other star candidate, Parminder Singh, who is the founding host of Hockey Night in Canada in Punjabi.

Methodology. Historical data is collected by ASI from the Canadian Census. Predictive data is from “Polly” an AI that predicts voter intentions based on publicly available social media data. Social media data is gathered from ASI’s online representative sample of over 270,000 Canadians selected using ASI’s patented CIC algorithm.