After winning handily in 2015, with over 49% of the vote compared to the Conservative candidate who obtained just over 28% of the vote, Liberal incumbent Matt DeCourcey finds himself in a tight race. The first-time Liberal MP managed to steal the riding away from two-term Conservative MP Keith Ashfiled, but so far has failed to hold the gap this time around against the Conservatives.

According to data run by H+K’s partner Advanced Symbolics Inc.’s (ASI) – Canada’s only Artificial Intelligence (AI) pollster – finds that as of October 15th DeCourcey’s lead in the riding had disappeared and he now finds himself one point behind Conservative candidate Andrea Johnson, in a race that is too close to call. A surge of Green support in the riding at both the federal and provincial levels has put this seat in jeopardy for the Liberals.

The data indicated that if the election were held on the 15th, DeCourcey would capture 33% of the vote in the riding, trailing Johnson (34%) by one point, while Green Party candidate Jenica Atwin would capture 19% of the vote.

Although DeCourcey remains well ahead of his rivals in terms of social media engagement and awareness in the riding, his name recognition and engagement is not translating into a run-away race as he saw in 2015. For DeCourcey, a strong showing in the advance polls and a herculean effort to get his vote out on election day will be essential if he is to seek out a victory on the 21st. For Johnson, avoiding vote-splitting with People’s Party candidate Jason Paull (4%) in a riding where the non-affiliated but politically aligned People’s Alliance Party holds seats provincially will be essential to an election victory on the 21st.

Methodology. Historical data is collected by ASI from the Canadian Census. Predictive data is from “Polly” an AI that predicts voter intentions based on publicly available social media data. Social media data is gathered from ASI’s online representative sample of over 270,000 Canadians selected using ASI’s patented CIC algorithm.