After ousting popular NDP MP Megan Leslie by a considerable margin in 2015 (15.6% ahead), Liberal incumbent Andy Fillmore has seen his lead in the polls shrink considerably. Despite being the most well-known candidate in the riding, data run by H+K’s partner Advanced Symbolics Inc.’s (ASI) – Canada’s only Artificial Intelligence (AI) pollster – finds that as of October 15th Fillmore’s lead in the riding of Halifax had been reduced to only 8%. A resurgence of NDP support across Canada due to a strong performance by Leader Jagmeet Singh has NDP candidate Christine Saulnier running in second.

The data indicated that if the election were held on the 15th, Fillmore would capture 36% of the vote in the riding, eight points ahead of Saulnier, and well ahead of Conservative candidate Bruce Holland, a former Provincial Minister of Science and Technology.

Fillmore will surely be feeling the heat with his support margin tightening, battling to hold onto his seat in a historically NDP riding (recall former NDP Leader Alexa McDonough held the seat before Megan Leslie). For the new NDP Candidate Saulnier to close the gap on Fillmore come election day, the NDP’s value proposition of free pharmacare and dental care for all could resonate with progressive voters in the riding, who rank health, unemployment, and job creation as their top issues of concern.

Methodology. Historical data is collected by ASI from the Canadian Census. Predictive data is from “Polly” an AI that predicts voter intentions based on publicly available social media data. Social media data is gathered from ASI’s online representative sample of over 270,000 Canadians selected using ASI’s patented CIC algorithm.