Federal Election – AI Driven Insights

Welcome to our truly unique political methodology!

Hill+Knowlton Strategies is joining forces with AI pioneers Advanced Symbolics Inc. to conduct in-depth analysis of 28 key federal ridings in #ELXN43.

This series is called Ridings to Watch. Over the course of the election we will add blocks of seven strategically important ridings. Below you will find our first 21!

The team at ASI created “Polly,” an AI that predicts voter intentions based on publicly available social media data. Social media data is gathered from ASI’s online representative sample of over 270,000 Canadians selected using ASI’s patented CIC algorithm. Polly reveals the discussions that are going on about local candidates, political issues, political parties and leaders. These discussions are broken down geographically and over time.

An AI driven predictive model using this data, as well as census data, is trained and learns about historical polling and electoral results. Every time “Polly” analyses an election “She” learns from “Her” predictions and the resulting outcome, and then refines the analysis for the next time.

In short, “She” is always improving. We hope you enjoy this site!

Erin Kelly

Erin Kelly

ASI President and CEO

"Our analysis surfaces the conversations that people are having everyday about the issues. Framed within the real world (by modeling Census and Elections Canada data at the riding level) we bring to life this predictive model. With H+K we found a true partnership between traditional data science, human insight and artificial intelligence.”

Elliott Gauthier

Elliott Gauthier

Senior Vice President and National Leader, Data + Analytics

“Harnessing a new mode of data collection and analysis of the political landscape exemplifies our early adoption philosophy here at H+K where continuous innovation is key to our continued success. The AI-based tool that ASI has created is on the leading-edge of next generation insight-gathering. In a context of increasing polling fatigue and skepticism, the application of AI is a very exciting development.”

Insights

National Seat Projection

Polly is continuously monitoring Canadian voter intentions. Each week, Polly delivers a seat projection that highlights the most likely scenario if the election were held that day. Using a 95% confidence interval, the coloured bands illustrate all possible outcomes.

Ridings to watch

The political strategists and researchers at H+K and ASI identified 28 strategically important ridings, based on three criteria:

Tightness: In some ridings we have multiple possible outcomes, with three and even four-way races

Bellwethers: These ridings are interesting because of their long history of electing MPs from the winning party

Stars: Other ridings have star candidates who are running as independents, or star candidates running for the upstart PPC

Below you find will our interactive dashboard that features the first 21 strategic ridings. Select a riding from the menu below to view projected results, top election issues, and past voting behaviour. Please note that the dashboard is best viewed on: Google Chrome, Safari, or Firefox.

Group A Ridings: Data was updated on Sept 19, 2019 for the following ridings: Drummond, King-Vaughan, Lac-St-Jean, Longueuil-St-Hubert, Malpeque, South Surrey-White Rock, and Regina-Wascana.

 

Group B Ridings: Data was updated on Sept 30, 2019 for the following ridings: Brampton-East, Laurentides-Labelle, Louis-Hebert, Markham-Stouffville, Richmond Centre, St. John’s East, and Vancouver-South.

 

Group C Ridings: Data was updated on Oct 4, 2019 for the following ridings: Edmonton-Centre, Guelph, Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo, London-West, Repentigny, Rimouski-Neigette-Témiscouata-Les Basques, and Vancouver Granville.