King–Vaughan is in for yet another tight election with only 1% separating incumbent Liberal MP Deb Schulte and her Conservative Rival Anna Roberts. A bellwether in its inaugural election in 2015, a Schulte victory may be reliant on how the national campaign unfolds for the Liberals. Schulte, however, may benefit from four years of record growth and job creation, and record lows in unemployment in her bid for reelection.

According to data run at the end of the first week of the campaign by H+K’s partner Advanced Symbolics Inc.’s (ASI) – Canada’s only Artificial Intelligence (AI) pollster – the dominant issues that voters are engaged about in the riding are unemployment and jobs, healthcare, international trade, and taxes.

With the release of the Liberal platform this weekend, which promises expansion of access to family physicians and pharmacare, a tax cut for people earning under $147,000 a year, and support for Canadian businesses to grow export opportunities, Schulte should be able to capitalize on the issue landscape in the riding with the Liberal Party’s core value proposition of supporting the middle class and those working hard to join it.

If these trends hold, Conservative challenger Anna Roberts will have to overcome the sizeable difference in candidate awareness in the riding to overtake Schulte in the riding; at the time of the analysis, she was twelve times less known than Schulte based on social media engagement. Beyond that, she should look to capitalize on the Liberal Party’s total disregard for balanced budgets in drumming up malaise over possible future tax hikes to make that the dominant campaign issue in the riding.

Methodology. Historical data is collected by ASI from the Canadian Census. Predictive data is from “Polly” an AI that predicts voter intentions based on publicly available social media data. Social media data is gathered from ASI’s online representative sample of over 270,000 Canadians selected using ASI’s patented CIC algorithm.