A riding with a recent tradition of electing popular local Mayors, Lac-Saint-Jean was represented by Conservative Quebec Lieutenant Denis Lebel for ten years from 2007-2008. When Lebel stepped down in 2017 to take an appointment as CEO of the Quebec Forest Industry Council, Liberal Richard Hébert – a popular local mayor himself – won the seat in a by-election which confirmed the collapse of the NDP in the province (with NDP candidate Gisele Dallaire finishing in a distant fourth after placing a close second in 2015).

With the Liberals running Hébert, a notable ‘all-star’ candidate at the local level, the Bloc Québécois have countered with Alexis Brunelle-Duceppe, the well-known son of former Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe. With his considerable celebrity across the province, Brunelle-Duceppe will look to translate that to positive media coverage in the riding by speaking to the issues that most captivate voters.

According to data run at the end of the first week of the campaign by H+K’s partner Advanced Symbolics Inc.’s (ASI) – Canada’s only Artificial Intelligence (AI) pollster – Hébert is projected to hold the riding for the Liberals with 37% of the vote, comfortably ahead of Conservative rival Jocelyn Fradette who is polling at 29% and Brunelle-Duceppe, who trails at 19%.

According to our analysis, job creation and the economy, immigration and refugees, and energy and pipelines are the top election issues in the riding. If these trends hold, and Hébert is to maintain his 8-point lead and secure his reelection, he would be well-advised to continue touting the Liberal government’s record on job creation and investments that have generated considerable economic growth.

Methodology. Historical data is collected by ASI from the Canadian Census. Predictive data is from “Polly” an AI that predicts voter intentions based on publicly available social media data. Social media data is gathered from ASI’s online representative sample of over 270,000 Canadians selected using ASI’s patented CIC algorithm.