After a tight three-way election in 2015, with just over 2% separating Liberal victor David Graham from his closest rival, the incumbent Liberal candidate can breathe a little easier this time around, having opened up a 7-point lead at the halfway point of the election. Formerly a solidly Bloc Québécois riding, Graham could still be in for fight should the Bloc continue to make gains across the province. Unlike in 2015, when there was a three-way race between the Bloc Québécois, the incumbent NDP, and the Liberals, this time around we are seeing a two-way race unfolding. Proof of a waning NDP vote in the province, NDP candidate Claude Dufour is projected to take only 10% of the vote.

According to data run on September 30th by H+K’s partner Advanced Symbolics Inc.’s (ASI) – Canada’s only Artificial Intelligence (AI) pollster – the dominant issues that voters are engaged about in this rural riding are unemployment and jobs, international trade, and health care. Compared to other Quebec ridings, voters in Laurentides—Labelle care very little about a key issue framing the election nationally; the environment. As a predominantly rural and francophone riding north of Montreal, constituents are more focused on jobs than indigenous issues or immigration.

Methodology. Historical data is collected by ASI from the Canadian Census. Predictive data is from “Polly” an AI that predicts voter intentions based on publicly available social media data. Social media data is gathered from ASI’s online representative sample of over 270,000 Canadians selected using ASI’s patented CIC algorithm.