After two tight races between the Bloc Québécois and Conservative party in 2006 and 2008, the NDP were elected in 2011 as part of the orange wave that swept Quebec under the leadership of Jack Layton. In 2015, the riding changed again when rookie Liberal MP Joël Lightbound was elected at the age of 27 with a 7-point lead over his Conservative rival. Described as a political rising star, Lightbound was the parliamentary secretary to the Finance Minister in Trudeau’s government, a prestigious portfolio for the young lawyer and McGill graduate, and could very well become a cabinet minister should the Liberals hold onto victory in this election.
According to data ran on September 30th by H+K’s partner Advanced Symbolics Inc.’s (ASI) – Canada’s only Artificial Intelligence (AI) pollster – Lightbound is projected to win 37% of the vote, compared to 28% of the vote for the Conservative candidate Marie-Josée Guérette. Sitting in third place at 14% is Christian Hébert of the Bloc Québécois. Proof that the NDP is collapsing in Quebec, the NDP candidate in the riding is projected to win 5% of the vote. Compared to the incumbent, neither of these candidates have been able to spur much awareness online expect for Daniel Brisson, candidate for the People’s Party. Brisson ran unsuccessfully in 2017 for the Mayor of Quebec City and is expected to capture 2% of the vote.
Overall, voters in Louis-Hébert prioritize the same issues as voters at the national level but are slightly less engaged when it comes to unemployment and job creation, health care, and international trade.
Methodology. Historical data is collected by ASI from the Canadian Census. Predictive data is from “Polly” an AI that predicts voter intentions based on publicly available social media data. Social media data is gathered from ASI’s online representative sample of over 270,000 Canadians selected using ASI’s patented CIC algorithm.