Once a star Liberal Minister in Justin Trudeau’s Cabinet, Jane Philpott now finds herself well-behind the new Liberal Candidate Helena Jaczek in the riding of Markham-Stouffville. Jaczek herself is a former provincial health minister in Ontario.

Despite being the most well-known candidate in the riding, data run by H+K’s partner Advanced Symbolics Inc.’s (ASI) – Canada’s only Artificial Intelligence (AI) pollster – finds that as of September 30th the star politician was firmly in 3rd place in the riding.

The data indicated that if the election were held that day, Philpott would only capture 18% of votes in the riding, well-behind her replacement Liberal Candidate Helena Jaczek, who would capture 38% of the vote. Conservative candidate Theodore Antony, would capture 29% of the vote.

That the Liberals would run a former provincial Liberal health minister to unseat Philpott appears to be a well-calculated decision as our analysis shows that voters in the riding significantly over-index compared to the national averages on engagement in online discussions regarding health care. Paired with the national campaign strategy of contrasting against Ontario Premier Doug Ford, the Liberal are set up to win voter support along two fronts.

If current trends hold, the dominant issues that matter in the riding – health care, unemployment and job creation, and international trade – should be of little concern to the Liberals. For Philpott to complete the come-from-behind reelection victory, she will be reliant on yet another significant hit to the Trudeau and Liberal brand.

Methodology. Historical data is collected by ASI from the Canadian Census. Predictive data is from “Polly” an AI that predicts voter intentions based on publicly available social media data. Social media data is gathered from ASI’s online representative sample of over 270,000 Canadians selected using ASI’s patented CIC algorithm.