Following a dominant showing in the 2015 campaign, longtime Liberal Minister Ralph Goodale is hoping that his considerable profile as a senior Minister in Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government will give him the edge he needs to be re-elected in this two-way race.
According to data run at the end of the first week of the campaign by H+K’s partner Advanced Symbolics Inc.’s (ASI) – Canada’s only Artificial Intelligence (AI) pollster – at that stage in the campaign Goodale was projected to win 42% of the vote, only 4% ahead of his principal rival Conservative candidate Michael Kram who is seeking election a second time.
From our modeling in the riding, we can glean some noteworthy insights regarding online engagement on top election issues in the riding. Notably, Regina–Wascana slightly over-indexes, compared to the national average, on almost all issues we’re tracking. While job creation remains the dominant issue in the riding, energy and pipelines, health care, and trade agreements are the issues that most over-index in the riding compared to national averages.
With the election just 3 weeks away and construction on the Trans-Mountain Pipeline expansion facing delays yet again, Kram may have found just the opportunity he needed to unseat the veteran Liberal and leave the Liberals with no seats in the Prairie Province.
Methodology. Historical data is collected by ASI from the Canadian Census. Predictive data is from “Polly” an AI that predicts voter intentions based on publicly available social media data. Social media data is gathered from ASI’s online representative sample of over 270,000 Canadians selected using ASI’s patented CIC algorithm.