After seeing her margin of victory shrink considerably in 2015, resulting in a tight 3-point victory over her principal Liberal rival, Conservative incumbent Alice Wong has opened up a comfortable 10-point lead over Liberal candidate Steven Kou as we pass the halfway point of the election.

According to data run on September 30th by H+K’s partner Advanced Symbolics Inc.’s (ASI) – Canada’s only Artificial Intelligence (AI) pollster – Alice Wong would capture 44% of the vote. Liberal candidate Steven Kou would capture 34% of the vote while Green candidate Françoise Raunet and NDP candidate Dustin Innes trail at 10% and 7% respectfully. Despite being the most engaged-with candidate in the riding, our data shows that Peoples Party of Canada candidate Ivan Pak would receive only 3% of the vote.

If current engagement trends in the riding hold, where voters significantly under-index on social media engagement with the issues, Wong with her added profile as the incumbent MP should be in for a win. For the Liberals to complete the come-from-behind victory, their first in the riding since 2006, Kou will be reliant on a strong ground game where every identified Liberal gets out to vote for their candidate.

Methodology. Historical data is collected by ASI from the Canadian Census. Predictive data is from “Polly” an AI that predicts voter intentions based on publicly available social media data. Social media data is gathered from ASI’s online representative sample of over 270,000 Canadians selected using ASI’s patented CIC algorithm.