This map shows the federal seat landscape the morning after the last Federal Leaders debate in English of #ELXN43 (October 8, 2019).  The results are from H+K’s partner Advanced Symbolics Inc.’s (ASI) – Canada’s only Artificial Intelligence (AI) pollster.  What the AI is showing at the bottom of this map is the differences in projected seats compared to a run the morning of the debate (October 7, 2019) – essentially a 24 hour period.

As you can see there was very little net impact from the Leaders debate, despite our other analysis that looked at overall increase in engagement on social media with the leaders (Jagmeet Singh of the NDP benefited most from increased engagement), our search of over 50,000 tweets about the leaders during the debate and our detailed analysis of google searches during the debate.

Each dot on this map represents a seat, and the seat is colour-coded by party, where a party has a greater than 1 in 4 chance of winning the seat.

This is a slightly different way of looking at the data “under the hood” of the AI’s seat projection.

What is so notable about this analysis is the sheer volume of contested ridings where one of two parties have high odds ratios of winning.  In short, there are many very close races unfolding all across the country.

With about a week left in this election, it is clear that the outcome of is very much up in the air with the potential for several possible futures coming true come October 22, 2019.

Seats Swings