After just squeaking by in 2015 with close to 47% of the vote compared to the NDP candidate who obtained just over 45% of the vote, Nick Whalen is in another tight race. The first-time liberal MP managed to steal the riding away from Jack Harris of the NDP but has failed to widen the gap this time around against the veteran politician and former leader of the provincial NDP.

According to data run on September 30th by H+K’s partner Advanced Symbolics Inc.’s (ASI) – Canada’s only Artificial Intelligence (AI) pollster – at that stage in the campaign, Whalen would be projected to lose the election by 3%, behind his rival NDP candidate Jack Harris. Whalen remains ahead of the conservative candidate Joedy Wall by 6%.

Even though Nick Whalen remains well ahead of his rivals in terms of social media engagement and awareness in the riding, his name recognition and engagement is not translating into a run-away race for him.  If this trend holds for Whalen and Harris, who are neck and neck in this race, they will need to fight for every inch, connect with voters on issues that matter to them, and most importantly ensure their voters get out and vote on October 21st.

Methodology. Historical data is collected by ASI from the Canadian Census. Predictive data is from “Polly” an AI that predicts voter intentions based on publicly available social media data. Social media data is gathered from ASI’s online representative sample of over 270,000 Canadians selected using ASI’s patented CIC algorithm.