Toronto modelling projections

This afternoon, Dr. Eileen de Villa, Toronto Medical Officer of Health released modelling projections for the City of Toronto. The Toronto modelling is based on mathematical, theoretical models that are combined with Toronto data, and experiences and data from other jurisdictions. Based on the assumptions used in the modelling, Dr. de Villa announced that if appropriate measures are taken, deaths as a result of COVID-19 would likely fall between 600 to 3,000 by the pandemic.

Dr. de Villa’s update regarding the City’s modelling, also revealed that in Toronto, there are currently 812 confirmed cases and 174 probable COVID-19 cases. To date, 13 people have died as a result of COVID-19 in the City of Toronto.

Toronto’s fiscal outlook for 2020

Mayor John Tory reveled that the City of Toronto is currently facing a weekly pressure of $65 million each week of the pandemic. This is a result of lost revenue and maintaining essential services.

Chris Murray, Toronto City Manager revealed that at this time the city is able to deal with the budget pressures by using ‘capital from current’ and drawing on the 2019 surplus. The city manager indicated that the current trajectory is not sustainable and the city will likely face liquidity issues in June.

The Mayor indicated that at this time there are no plans to layoff employees and that people are currently being trained and redeployed to meet the city needs in critical areas.

Both the Mayor and City Manager indicated that conversations will be ongoing with other levels of government regarding the city’s fiscal position.

Toronto COVID-19 enforcement

The Toronto Police Service are partnering with the City of Toronto to undertake enforcement efforts of by-laws and provincial orders. There are currently 160 officers and other personal assigned to the COVID-19 enforcement team in the City of Toronto. In addition, 200 Toronto by-law officers have also been assigned to assist with the efforts.

Chief Matthew Pegg, General Manager of the Emergency Management indicate the first step is to inform and educate those who are in breach of physical distancing measures.

Chief Pegg did not report any numbers or details regarding businesses that were not in compliance.