Jody Wilson-Raybould became widely recognized when she vaulted into Justin Trudeau’s Cabinet in 2015, but became truly famous when she found herself at the centre of Trudeau’s biggest scandal to date. Now, as an Independent candidate she finds herself eight points behind Liberal Candidate Taleeb Noormohamed as she seeks re-election in the riding of Vancouver Granville.

Despite being among the most well-known Canadian politicians following the SNC-Lavalin Scandal, data run by H+K’s partner Advanced Symbolics Inc.’s (ASI) – Canada’s only Artificial Intelligence (AI) pollster – finds that as of October 4th the star politician was firmly in 2nd place in the riding.

The data indicated that if the election were held that day, Wilson-Raybould would only capture 23% of votes in the riding, eight points behind her replacement Liberal Candidate Taleeb Noormohamed, who would capture 31% of the vote. Conservative candidate Zach Segal would capture 20% of the vote.

From our modeling in the riding, we can glean some noteworthy insights regarding online engagement on top election issues in the riding. Notably, Vancouver Granville over-indexes, compared to the national average, on every issue we’re tracking. While job creation remains the dominant issue in the riding, indigenous issues, energy and pipelines, and the environment (addressing climate change) stand out as the most important issues to voters in the riding.

If current trends hold, the dominant issues that matter in the riding – indigenous issues, pipelines, and addressing climate change – should set up well for Wilson-Raybould. However, regardless of the damage done to the Trudeau-Liberal brand in Vancouver Granville, voters are still gravitating to Liberal candidate Noormohamed.

Methodology. Historical data is collected by ASI from the Canadian Census. Predictive data is from “Polly” an AI that predicts voter intentions based on publicly available social media data. Social media data is gathered from ASI’s online representative sample of over 270,000 Canadians selected using ASI’s patented CIC algorithm.