Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan has seen his 15-point win in the 2015 election reduce to just a 4-point lead over his principal rival, Conservative candidate and former MP Wai Young. This reinforces the importance of the lower-mainland BC to both parties in their path to victory.

Data run by H+K’s partner Advanced Symbolics Inc.’s (ASI) – Canada’s only Artificial Intelligence (AI) pollster – finds that as of September 30th if the election were held that day, Sajjan would capture 40% of votes in the riding, eight points less than his 2015 election result. Conservative candidate Wai Young, who in 2015 was reduced to 33% on route to her election loss, has seen a small uptick in support and would capture 36% of the vote.

Our data shows that voters in the riding are heavily engaged, over-indexing national averages online discussions regarding unemployment and job creation, health care, and international trade. Indigenous issues, climate change, and pipelines are also significant issues of interest to voters in the riding.

If current trends hold, the dominant issues that matter in the riding – unemployment and job creation, health care, and international trade – should be of little concern to Sajjan. However, a significant increase in voter engagement regarding climate change and pipelines could be disadvantageous for the Liberals, where vote-splitting among the progressive left could be just what Conservative Wai Young needs to pull out the electoral comeback.

Methodology. Historical data is collected by ASI from the Canadian Census. Predictive data is from “Polly” an AI that predicts voter intentions based on publicly available social media data. Social media data is gathered from ASI’s online representative sample of over 270,000 Canadians selected using ASI’s patented CIC algorithm.